While most eyes will be riveted on the presidential election between Democratic nominee Kamala Harris and three-time Republican nominee Donald Trump, the congressional elections in the House and Senate will help determine the U.S. political climate through 2028.
The Democrats have controlled the Senate in the legislative session that’s about to end, with 47 party members and four independents who regularly vote with them. In addition, Harris as vice-president has broken ties on Senate votes on more than 30 occasions.
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There are 34 Senate seats up for grabs on Tuesday. Of those seats, 11 are currently held by Republicans, 21 by Democrats and two by independents — Bernie Sanders of Vermont, Angus King of Maine — who caucus with the Democrats. There will be at least nine new faces in the Senate, as that’s the number of races that feature a seat that’s being vacated.
Voters in seven swing states will determine the outcome of the U.S. presidential election in November. Andrew Chang breaks down each of the states in play for Kamala Harris and Donald Trump and their pathways to 270 electoral college votes.
With so many seats to defend, the Democrats are perceived to have a tough hill to climb in order to retain the Senate. Election simulations run by Five Thirty-Eight have them losing the Senate 89 times out of 100, with the Economist/YouGov models giving the Democrats a 30 per cent chance of winning.
The odds reflect, in part, the fact the Democrats are all but certain to lose a seat in West Virginia vacated by Joe Manchin. Republican Gov. Jim Justice is leading a contest that, according to any state polling that has been done, is not competitive.
Should the Republicans win the Senate, the gavel will pass from Majority Leader Chuck Schumer of the Democrats — but it won’t be handed to former majority leader Mitch McConnell. The Kentucky Republican, 82, has announced he won’t vie for the leadership again.
In addition to legislative and watchdog functions, the Senate votes on approving federal court judges, Supreme Court justices and a raft of U.S. cabinet and government positions that require its confirmation.
Here are the candidates in some of the key races.
Michigan
Michigan’s seat is in play as Democrat Debbie Stabenow opted not to run for a fifth term. Elissa Slotkin prevailed in the Democratic primary, defeating actor Hill Harper. Slotkin is a former CIA analyst and held a Defense Department position in Barack Obama’s administration before running and winning a seat in the U.S. House in 2018.
Republican Mike Rogers is a known quantity in the state. The former FBI agent served in the Michigan legislature in the 1990s and then won several elections in Michigan’s 8th District beginning in 2001, before stepping away from politics in 2015. Before this current run, he was an analyst with CNN, building off his time as House intelligence committee chair.
Montana
Democrats are concerned about the prospects for Jon Tester, who’s won three close Senate election races in a state that overwhelmingly opted for Trump in the presidential races of 2016 and 2020. The farmer and former school music teacher served in Montana’s legislature before heading to D.C. in 2007, where he’s occasionally gone against his party, as with his support for the Keystone XL pipeline.
Tim Sheehy is one of several very wealthy Republican candidates looking to enter the Senate this year. He is a former U.S. Navy Seal who founded an aerospace company that proved very profitable. While he earned a Purple Heart for an incident in Afghanistan, he has faced allegations of stolen valour in another, mysterious incident in which he suffered a gunshot wound.
Nebraska
This race is a potential wildcard, as Dan Osborn is running as an Independent and has been coy as to whether he’d caucus with the Democrats or Republicans. The U.S. Navy veteran has decried the Senate as “a country club of millionaires that work for billionaires.” He is an industrial mechanic who gained national recognition three years ago when he successfully led a strike at Kellogg’s cereal plants.
Deb Fischer is a lifelong Nebraska native who held a school board position for more than a decade, spent time in the state legislature and since 2012 has been a U.S. senator. She gave Trump good marks in his first term on his strong support for beefed-up national security and national defence, and in his appointment of conservative federal judges.
Nevada
Republican Sam Brown is a retired Army captain who suffered significant burns while on duty in Afghanistan in 2008, caused by an improvised explosive device. He has limited experience aside from military service, running unsuccessfully in a state election race in Texas, where he used to reside, as well as in a 2022 campaign for the U.S. Senate in Nevada.
Jacky Rosen was a first-term congresswoman from a Las Vegas-area district when she defeated incumbent Republican Sen. Dean Heller in 2018. She’s tapped into her humble background, which includes attending community college, working as a Las Vegas casino waitress and serving as president of a prominent Jewish synagogue in Henderson, Nev.
Ohio
Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown’s bid for a fourth term is shaping up to be his toughest to date, with the race on track to be the most expensive Senate contest this cycle. The campaigns, parties and outside groups have spent more than $400 million US on ads, according to the campaign ad tracking firm AdImpact. Brown previously spent 14 years as a U.S. House member, as well as two decades in state politics.
Bernie Moreno was born in Bogota, Colombia, and belongs to a family of influence in Latin American business and politics. He has lived in Ohio for 20 years, building a fortune as a luxury car dealer and blockchain entrepreneur before expressing an interest in national politics, running previously for the seat eventually won in 2022 by Sen. J.D. Vance.
Pennsylvania
Bob Casey, the son of a former Pennsylvania governor, served as state treasurer and auditor general before being elected to the U.S. Senate. The moderate Democrat is a key ally of labour unions and the current administration, and is seeking his fourth term in office after three clear-cut Senate election wins.
David McCormick is a Gulf War veteran who left the state to attend and graduate from West Point military academy. He later got a doctoral degree from Princeton, and then served in a high-ranking U.S. Treasury position in George W. Bush’s administration. After that, he was CEO of Bridgewater Associates, one of the world’s largest hedge funds.
Texas
The Calgary-born Ted Cruz, seeking a third term, famously clashed with Trump while both were running for the Republican nomination for president in 2016, but he became a loyalist when Trump was in the Oval Office. While Cruz angered many Texans by being on a personal trip during a bad storm in 2021, the Harvard-educated lawyer is a powerful voice on the Senate’s judiciary and foreign relations committees.
Democrats could not beat Cruz in 2018 with the celebrated Beto O’Rourke. The party’s hope this year is Colin Allred, who spent parts of four seasons as a linebacker with the Tennessee Titans in the NFL, got his law degree from the University of California-Berkeley after retiring from football and since 2018 has served in the House, where he has sometimes been critical of the Biden administration’s border policies.
Wisconsin
Democrat Tammy Baldwin, after several years as a state legislator, became the first openly gay woman elected to U.S. Congress in 1998, beginning a 15-year run as a House representative. Since 2013, she has served as one of the state’s two senators.
Republican Eric Hovde plunged into a frigid Lake Mendota earlier this year to prove his Wisconsin bona fides. He was born and raised in the state but has most recently been CEO of California-based H Bancorp and its primary subsidiary, Sunwest Bank.
